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Category: Raub Report

Raub Report: Summer Days of Covid

August 3, 2020

Green Street Advisors, the premier commercial real estate analysis firm, covers properties across the globe. They are highly respected for their depth of analysis and breadth of coverage. Their best estimate on impact that the Days of Covid have had on commercial real estate across the board is a reduction in value of about 10 […]

Raub Report: The Resurgence of Inflation

July 9, 2020

Remember inflation? That is what happens when prices go up, and buying power of your dollar goes down. That has been generally flat the past few years and off everyone’s radar screen. In Commercial Real Estate, it is generally accepted that the rate of inflation is about 2%. For example, in leases, Landlords can raise […]

Raub Report: The New Office – Back to the Basics

June 5, 2020

The New Office – Will companies find that working from home is as effective as being on-site? In 2013, Marissa Mayer took over as CEO of Yahoo! and sent everyone in the company out to work from home. After 6 months she ended the experiment, saying, “To become the absolute best place to work, communication and […]

Raub Report: On to the new, New Normal

May 1, 2020

We are still in the midst of the Covid-19 healthcare crisis, but it appears the worst of this first phase is over. Here in San Antonio, hospitalizations have dropped from 77 to 54 with only 3 on ventilators as of the end of April. So, San Antonio metro area has not been hit as hard […]

Raub Report: The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow

April 1, 2020

I am in the process of throwing out all of the magazines and newspaper articles that I use for research for this newsletter.  They are no longer relevant as we are leaving the old world and plunging into a new era, because of the quarantines put in place to combat the COVID-19 virus.   No one […]

Raub Report: Coronavirus Outbreak – Possible Effects on Commercial Real Estate in San Antonio

March 19, 2020

With the corona virus threatening, perhaps this is a good time to take the temperature of Commercial Real Estate, and in San Antonio especially.  We started the year in a very healthy market condition. While banks are flush with lending capacity, the foreclosure rate is extremely low. For example, back in the RTC days of […]

Raub Report: 2020 Forecasts & Predictions

January 7, 2020

Happy New Year!  It’s that time of year for Forecasts and Predictions.  I have been a member for years of a Brokers Breakfast Group and each December we each make a forecast for the Year Ahead – will it be Better, the Same or Worse?  This year the consensus was mostly the Same or Better, […]

Raub Report: This New Trend is Changing Retail

November 27, 2019

The Happy Holiday Season is upon us and it is time for Black Friday retail shopping and the rush to get all of the great and popular gifts for Christmas.  So let’s look at retail commercial real estate, because when you read the press, you would think that Black Friday’s meaning is really the death […]

Raub Report: Downtown San Antonio Transformed

October 29, 2019

Downtown San Antonio is undergoing an amazing transformation.  Mayor Castro, in January 2009, declared this to be the “Decade of Downtown” and so it has been, and we are just getting started. There are three elements that came together to start this in 2005: 1. Kit Goldsbury sold Pace Picante Sauce to Campbell Soup and […]

Raub Report: San Antonio Industrial Real Estate Market on Fire for New Growth

September 27, 2019

The San Antonio industrial real estate market has really been on fire lately for new plant announcements. Investment Realty just scored a big win in the manufacturing arena with the updating of the Toyota plant on Applewhite Road for $391-million. This plant opened in 2006, manufacturing the very popular Tundra truck. Then, it also picked […]

Raub Report: Commercial Real Estate Occupancy Rates in San Antonio

August 15, 2019

“How you doin’?” is our typical greeting, but let’s ask Commercial Real Estate that question. In San Antonio we are doing pretty well, thank you. Texas is leading the nation in population growth, growing at twice the rate of California and more then Florida and Colorado. San Antonio is right there with the other major […]

Raub Report: Property Value in San Antonio Outpacing Value Appreciation

June 26, 2019

A frequent topic I see lately is the issue of Affordable Housing and property value in San Antonio. One of the biggest expenses of owning property, whether it’s your own home or a rental property, is property taxes. Home appreciation in San Antonio averaged about 4.3% last year, one of the highest rates in Texas. […]

Raub Report: Commercial Real Estate Sector Performance

April 16, 2019

Let’s take a whip around the various commercial real estate sectors in San Antonio and see how it is going. Apartments occupancies just got back above 90% after a dip from 93% down to 89%. Apartments are given to a two year over-building cycle, so this is to be expected. However, while concessions are still […]

Raub Report: Are We in the Late Stage of the Economic Cycle?

March 12, 2019

The broad consensus among commercial real estate investors, far and wide, is that we are in the very late stages of this current expansion, yet, the markets still remain surprisingly stable and durable. Now that the worries about more interest increases have calmed, and the stock market’s December tantrum has been mostly erased, IRC has […]

Raub Report: Texas Job Growth Remains Strong

January 24, 2019

Job growth remains strong in the Lone Star State, in fact more than any other state, with an increase of 391,800 for the year, according to the latest figures released by the Texas Workforce Commission.   This is actually more than double California’s growth, with Florida running a close second to Texas.  (I believe all 391,800 […]

Raub Report: Tech Dominance in Austin May Keep San Antonio Steady

December 20, 2018

I sense everyone is getting pretty nervous right now: 1. This has been a really long economic advance. 2. Trump’s election has enhanced and lengthened it. 3. Interest rates are rising, for now. 4. All believe we are in the Late Stable stage of the commercial real estate cycle. 5. I have seen investors putting […]

Raub Report: Fall 2018 Market Analysis

November 7, 2018

So often we hear that we are in such an “uncertain time”. Really? Please name a period in history when we were not in an uncertain time, and then how long did it last? We seem to have forgotten the time-honored maxim, “Nothing is certain but death and taxes.” Change is the most basic element […]

Raub Report- San Antonio Sees Job Growth From Within

September 24, 2018

Job growth is the lifeblood of commercial real estate because it means companies lease new space and build new buildings. Did you know that most of our new jobs come from companies who are already in San Antonio, not relocations from outside? For example, HEB builds a new grocery store and hires 300 new people.  […]

The Raub Report- Business Cycle Forecast

August 28, 2018

The Business Cycle is often described as a sine curve, like a wave that rolls up and down, up and down, or like a roller coaster. We proceed from prosperity to peril, boom to bust, greed to fear, etc. As you have heard, “Trees don’t grow to the sky” a phrase, inferring that economic expansions […]

Raub Report- Where do we fit in?

July 25, 2018

Where do we fit in?  Mayor Nirenberg and the City Council always make a point that “San Antonio is the Seventh Largest City in the U.S.” Well, sort of.  At a population of approximately 1.5-million this puts us in line behind New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, and Philadelphia and just ahead of San […]

The Raub Report- Data Center Danger Zones

June 25, 2018

Datacenters are basically warehouses for “1’s” and “0’s, the cyphers that make up the entire world of data, and generated by either an “on” or “off” switch of electricity. It’s all that simple and that complex.  It’s called binary code for you non-nerds in the audience.  Now the interesting thing about 1s and 0s is […]

The Raub Report- Changes in Office Space Metrics

May 25, 2018

When I first entered the commercial real estate business there were many metrics I needed to learn; for example, how many square feet are in an acre (43,560). One of the metrics I learned is that the average space used by an office worker was about 250 square feet.  This takes into account not only […]

The Raub Report – Home Building and Home Owning

April 25, 2018

The housing industry has “sort of recovered,” in the words of Jim Gaines, Chief Economist of The Real Estate Center, continuing that a full decade after the start of the Great Recession, home building still isn’t all the way back.  “Theoretically, housing is around 75 to​​ 85 percent of where it should be,” he said. […]

The Raub Report- Too Much of a Good Thing

March 15, 2018

Mae West once said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful!” That may be where commercial real estate is at this time in history. CRE has appreciated greatly over the past 8 years and all sectors are pretty fully valued at this point in the economic cycle.  So much so, that the few […]

The Raub Report- End of a Great Year

December 14, 2017

As we celebrate the end of a great year, let’s review the commercial real estate market, and consider this past year as the prologue to the New Year 2018. Let me begin with the residential market, though. Interesting things are afoot. Here’s a clue – home sales volume is up, that is the dollar amount […]

The Raub Report- San Antonio Safe from Retail Apocalypse

October 17, 2017

So are the rumors of the retail apocalypse over blown? In San Antonio we are actually doing okay.  Yes, you have seen some of your favorite stores go dark or very seriously renegotiate leases, like Payless Shoes and Rue 21, and the incursion of eCommerce has certainly left its mark and given way to discussion […]

The Raub Report- Home Ownership Trends for San Antonio

September 19, 2017

Home ownership has seen new trends come and go over the last decade. Housing is a major component of our economy and our homes are the central location for the living of our lives, raising our families, and the site of most of our best times and our worst times. Our homes have evolved over […]

Raub Report – July 2017

August 7, 2017

Recently, I was privileged to represent the Buyer of Shavano Center I and II, a pair of office buildings on Loop 1604 near Paesanos Restaurant. The two office buildings totaled 57,000 square feet of Class A space and are nearly 89% leased. I present this as a case study in commercial real estate investments, but […]

The Raub Report – Retail Marketplace Changing

July 7, 2017

Is the retail marketplace changing? With old businesses like Payless Shoes, Macy’s, J.C. Penny’s and Sears closing up shop we can conclude- yes, the retail marketplace is changing. This is partially due to the shift to on-line shopping and quick delivery to your door. But there are other forces at work – Millennials are somewhat […]

The Raub Report – The Austin-San Antonio Corridor

May 30, 2017

I think cities are like people in that each and every one of us has a unique personality, skills and experience. No two of us are alike, even brothers and sisters in the same family. How different is Dallas from Houston, albeit they are both large cities with close to 7 million populations and both […]

The Raub Report- The Uncertainty We Face

April 10, 2017

I’m sorry but every time I hear a pundit on T.V. or radio go on about the uncertainty we face, I have to laugh a little. Isn’t there an old saying, ‘There is nothing more certain than change?’ Ah, that was Heraclitis in 535 B.C. Or circa 1840, Jean-Batiste Karr, “The more things change, the […]

Raub Report January 2017

February 1, 2017

It’s a New Year and we have a new President.  Will this be a new age for commercial real estate?  The current expansion is 7 ½ years long, one of the longest on record, yet, remarkably we are not seeing signs of a downturn on the horizon.  The regional exception, of course, is Houston, but […]

Raub Report December 2016

December 15, 2016

“Everyone needs a place for his/her stuff,” said George Carlin (RIP).  Your house may be just the place where you keep your stuff, the housing market is an extremely important element of our society and our economy. Homeownership is key to personal property rights and personal homesteads have been a major source of personal wealth […]

Raub Report November 2016

November 21, 2016

In Politics there is a phrase, “October Surprise.”  Now there is a new one –“The November Surprise.” How will this affect commercial real estate in San Antonio?  It will be good.  The expectation is that we will see a positive change for small businesses; for example, the stocks of small capitalization companies were among the […]

Raub Report August 2016

September 13, 2016

Commercial Real Estate investment transactions are slowing markedly from the torrid pace of 2015, however, this matches the trend in 2012, another election year.  Regardless of who wins, a pick up after the election is likely. Interest rates play a huge role in our economy, and “lower longer” is still going to be the theme.   […]

Raub Report October 2015

November 2, 2015

San Antonio is known as the steady real estate market – neither big boom nor bust. So it goes. Prices of investment properties are continuing to increase, but the supply of available, attractive properties is not plentiful.  As mentioned in previous Reports, owners are sitting on their properties and are reluctant to sell.  The question […]

Raub Blog: August 2015

October 1, 2015

How safe is commercial real estate investing?  Are we over-building or is this the sweet spot? The Cost of new construction is now very high, as land prices, construction materials and labor costs have risen substantially; and they are very unlikely to decline.   One of the basic measures of a building’s value is ‘what would […]

Raub Report July 2015

July 28, 2015

Is the New Home / First Time Home Buyer a disappearing breed?  If you are young college graduate and just married, then, you want to buy a new home don’t you?  However, twenty-somethings are having difficulty with the down payment and the necessary credit scores to buy a house.  So they must save more and […]

Raub Report May 2015

May 19, 2015

The activity level in commercial real estate in Q1 2015 picked up from a more subdued Q4 of 2014 and is currently very strong and healthy. The “oil shock” of December, scared a lot of Texans, as I wrote in February, but now we are seeing that the impact locally is not going to be […]

Raub Report February 2015

February 24, 2015

Texans are a little nervous these days.  Some of us saw a really, really scary movie in the 1980’s, and we didn’t like the ending.  Will this be the sequel, with the same bad ending for the Lone Star State? Nope. It really is different this time around.  A few may remember that in 1986 […]

Raub Report January 2015

January 29, 2015

Here we are at the Kick Off for Year 2015.   This year also marks the 40th Anniversary of Investment Realty Company, founded in 1975.  I have attached the newspaper article that appeared in the San Antonio Express News Sunday January 11, 2015 which tells the tale of IRC.  At least, it tells our history and […]

Raub Report December 2014

December 22, 2014

“To everything there is a season, turn, turn, turn …” sang the Byrds in the 1960’s.  (That is a test of your age and your memory).  It is taken from Ecclesiastes Chapter 3, which actually begins, “There is an appointed time for everything.  And there is a time for everything under heaven.”  This passage seems […]

Raub Report November 2014

November 20, 2014

Retailing is changing, but it is still very much in fashion.  It is now a tale of two markets. One is the large national retail corporations that have dozens, hundreds or thousands of store outlets nationwide.   They can afford to pay the higher rents that are required to support new construction.  The increases in 1. […]

The Raub Report September 2014

September 30, 2014

Time for an overview of the commercial market place in San Antonio; subtitled “The stresses and strains of the New Normal.” Apartment construction has come back strongly since 2012, after the slump of the Great Recession. Occupancy is presently 92.6%, about the same as a year ago, and rents are up 3.6%, adding $30 per […]

Raub Report: August 2014

August 20, 2014

Pop Quiz: What does “CPI” stand for?  Answer: “Consumer Price Index.”  What does this mean?  It is designed to measure the change in prices of products that you and I buy every week; that is, it is a measure of “the cost of maintaining a constant standard of living, as determined by prices paid by […]

Raub Report July 2014

July 29, 2014

  “Where have all the investment deals gone?”   It’s a question that seems to be on investors’ minds these days, as they are looking for places to put their money to work.  Everything they look at seems over-priced and there are not many selections from which to choose.  I believe there are several issues that […]

Raub Report May 2014

June 2, 2014

While the international scene is confusing right now (QE 4-awhile longer, Russia vs Ukraine; China vs. Japan, Viet Nam, Philippines, et al), how are WE doing? The employment picture in San Antonio is excellent with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.8% from 5.2%, and hitting the mark last set in July 2008, and making San […]

Raub Report April 2014

April 8, 2014

For decades now, the U.S. economy has depended upon and been gaged by consumer consumption.  Consumer spending is watched closely by economic analysts for swings and indications of the health of the economy.  In the past few years, it has dipped because of the Great Recession and our desire to pay off debt and slim […]

Raub Report February 2014

February 12, 2014

Mexico’s Pemex oil company has vastly underperformed for years.  It is state-owned and inefficient but since it is the biggest source of revenue for the Mexican government, next to payments from the U.S., it is critical to their stability and prosperity.  What to do?  Mexico is now opening to outside oil and gas producers for […]

The Raub Report January 2014

January 10, 2014

It’s the turn of the year — time for reflection on the past year and looking forward to what will be.  In my niche of commercial real estate in San Antonio, the year 2013 was a pretty good year as we have adjusted to the New Normal.  Occupancies increased in all sectors of commercial real […]

Raub Report November 2013

November 8, 2013

Does this look like the front end of a Boom?  Please turn your attention to the following newspaper articles. The San Antonio Business Journal Oct 16, 2013 San Antonio’s housing prices were up 2.1%, the largest month over month increase for U.S. cities. Also from SABJ Oct 16 – San Antonio housing inventory hits an […]

Raub Report August 2013

August 15, 2013

Last Year I presented the proposal that because of Texas’ gross product and rate of growth, we can be considered the equal of many “Emerging Market” countries. Please look at the following chart, taken from “Business Insider.”   It illustrates how Texas has become the 13th largest oil producer in the world, if (only) Texas was a […]

Raub Report July 2013

July 21, 2013

Since I entered the Commercial Real Estate field in 1984, I have heard, “Well, things are booming everywhere, maybe it’s time for Corpus Christi.”  Well, Corpus has never boomed but just kept on gradually growing and being a nice place to vacation. That is, until recently, with the Eagle Ford Shale windfall embracing South Texas. […]

Raub Report June 2013

June 10, 2013

San Antonio’s jobless rate has risen by .01% for 3 months in a row; but San Antonio at 6.3% is below the Texas average of 6.4% and the national unemployment rate of 7.5%. Austin is super hot though with an unemployment rate of only 5.4%. The implementation of Obama Care next year will be a […]

Raub Report – U.S. Real Estate Cycle

April 3, 2013

When driving you are focusing on the windshield and road ahead, occasionally glancing  in the rear view mirror and side mirrors to be sure that what is going on behind and to your side is not going to disturb you.  Real estate is a lot like that — the past is our window to the […]

Raub Report

December 5, 2012

“Jobs” was the central issue in the recent election.  It is certainly on everyone’s minds with the national unemployment rate hovering around 8%; and if you go to the government’s  broadest measure of unemployment which includes all the potential workforce including those who have stopped looking, then, the unemployment rate is at about 15%.   It […]

Raub Report October 2012

October 22, 2012

“Are we there yet?” – Yes, this was the question your kids asked you on your summer vacation trip this year.  It is also the question everyone is asking about The Recovery.  Are we THERE yet?   Or are we starting another Double Dip? Or just limping into the New Normal malaises? At the moment it […]

Raub Report July 2012

July 5, 2012

Think of an egg and the little chicken inside is breaking out.  I believe this is an apt analogy for what is happening to our South Texas region as a result of the Eagle Ford Shale drilling boom.  The old dry shell has cracked open from the inside and a little chick emerges to become […]

Raub Report – May 2012

May 8, 2012

We celebrate Texas Independence Day on April 21st which was the day of the victory over the army of Santa Ana at San Jacinto and the reason for Fiesta San Antonio.  We should pause to remember our great Texan heritage as an independent nation for the ten years from 1836 to 1846.  Our beloved Governor, […]

Raub Report March 2012

March 13, 2012

We are having a very interesting discussion in our fair city over private property rights.   You may know that Wal-Mart has a tract of land at Wurzbach Parkway and Blanco Road under contract.  The property has been appropriately zoned for this type of use since the early 1970’s when the land for the surrounding subdivisions […]

Raub Report January 2012

January 30, 2012

Happy New Year! This time last year I said that 2011 will be Year One of the Recovery. Well, we started off well for the first six months and then things fizzled in the latter half of the year. So now what’s next? With the economic landscape still shaky and the political scenery unclear in […]

December 2011 – Raub Report

December 1, 2011

As we approach the end of the year, I thought it time to do an overview of the market place. Some of the analysis comes from the recent CCIM Symposium. All in all, we are bumping along the bottom, awaiting a reason to turn optimistic but uncertain about the proverbial “Light at the end of […]

October 2011 Raub Report

October 26, 2011

Isn’t it interesting to make a comparison between the Occupy Wall Street mob and the Tea Party? The Tea Partiers are middle-aged middle Americans, who wave the Stars & Stripes, clean up after themselves, and tout a clear message of reducing taxes and limiting government. Their result was a big success at the ballot boxes […]

Raub Report – August 2011 Commercial Real Estate Newsletter for San Antonio

August 8, 2011

In the June edition, I wrote about Uncertainty; and sadly this monster is still roaming, becoming even stronger, like a Transformer. In this metaphor from the movie, Risk is that fast and neat car, which is manageable to drive. But then it morphs into the monster of Uncertainty, which is destructive, deadly and uncontrollable, causing […]

The Raub Report July 2010 Commercial Real Estate Newsletter for San Antonio

July 23, 2010

“Uncertainty” is our word for the day.  It applies to predictions of future events and the unknown.  Uncertainty is distinctly different from the familiar term “risk” which is a measurable uncertainty.  Uncertainty is immeasurable. Risk, in the financial arena, is quantifiable.  It is incorporated into interest rates, discount rates, insurance premiums, capitalization rates and the […]

Statement of Purpose

January 10, 2010

This blog is to be a convenient method for readers who are interested in Commercial Real Estate investing in San Antonio, Texas. We know you are assaulted daily with all sorts of conflicting information and insights on how the real estate market is doing, where to invest and what to avoid. IRC makes it our […]

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