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Raub Report August 2013

August 15, 2013

Last Year I presented the proposal that because of Texas’ gross product and rate of growth, we can be considered the equal of many “Emerging Market” countries. Please look at the following chart, taken from “Business Insider.”   It illustrates how Texas has become the 13th largest oil producer in the world, if (only) Texas was a separate country.

Texas’ economy is expanding at a 3.2% rate of growth, widely outpacing the U.S. 1.2% rate of growth.  To be an emerging market the country’s economy should be expanding at 3% or more. Check mark, Tex!

Existing-home sales are up 19.7 percent year over year with sales in Austin, Dallas, San Antonio and especially Houston all up from April levels. Single-family housing construction permits are up 14.1 percent year over year. Texas housing starts rose 5.9 percent in May after dropping 25.4 percent in April reports the Dallas Federal Reserve. Home inventories dropped to 3.8 months of available supply in May, pushing further below the six-month-supply marker signal­ing a tight market and rising prices. Austin has only a 2.9 month supply, a real shortage of housing.

Texas’ unemployment rate of 6.4% remains below the U.S. rate of 7.6 percent in May. Texas gained 11,500 jobs in May after adding 27,700 jobs in April. Currently Texas employment is 11.12 million.

So, with continued strong job growth, excellent future prospects from oil shale fracking (which is even stronger in West Texas than the Eagle Ford), more ship traffic from the improved Panama Canal (The Port of Houston enjoyed a 28% jump in trade this year), and an excellent climate for new business creation, things look pretty good for the Lone Star state.  Texas is an Emerging Market for the future!

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